Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Pick: Over 8.5

Yes, we’re on another Rockies over. The first two Daily Picks didn’t cash, but Monday’s setup is considerably different from the two games we just played at Coors. The series moves to Washington and the total drops to 8.5, where one of the most productive offenses in baseball gets a favorable matchup. The Nationals have scored 682 runs this season, second-most in the majors, and now get Ryan Feltner, who enters with a 5.97 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Feltner allowed seven runs over five-plus innings against the Dodgers in his most recent start, while Colorado’s pitching staff has posted a 6.20 ERA over its last 10 games. Washington has a legitimate chance to do a lot of the work required to push this game over the number.

The tougher side of the matchup is Cade Cavalli, because he has been excellent for Washington. Cavalli owns a 3.22 ERA, has gone 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA over his last 10 starts and enters Monday riding 17 consecutive scoreless innings. He struck out 11 over six shutout innings against Texas in his last appearance after throwing eight scoreless against the Cubs before that. So this isn’t a pick built around expecting Colorado to jump on the Nationals’ starter. The more realistic path is Washington taking advantage of Feltner and the Rockies’ pitching staff, with Colorado finding enough offense over the course of nine innings to get the game past 8.5.

The price makes that setup especially appealing. Over 8.5 is currently -105, which carries a 51.2% market break-even probability, while the SLS model gives the over a 66.2% chance of hitting. That creates an estimated 15.0% edge at the current number and makes this a much stronger value proposition than simply betting another Rockies over because we’ve been on them the last two days. The 0-2 start is frustrating, but Monday has to be judged on Monday’s matchup. With Washington bringing one of baseball’s highest-scoring offenses into a matchup with Feltner and a struggling Colorado staff, we like the chances of the Nationals doing enough damage to put Over 8.5 in position to cash.