Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels Pick: Under 7.5

Cleveland and Los Angeles gave us a 4-2 game Monday night, and we like the chances of another low-scoring one Tuesday. Gavin Williams gets the ball for Cleveland with a 3.72 ERA, but the strikeouts are what really stand out here. He got his season total over 200 in his last start after punching out 11 Giants, and he’s now reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his last eight outings. That sets up really well against an Angels lineup that has struggled badly at home and strikes out a lot against right-handed pitching.

The Angels will counter with Walbert Ureña, who has been really good this season. He comes in with a 2.80 ERA and has already thrown six scoreless innings twice this month. He also faced Cleveland earlier this year and held the Guardians to two runs on just three hits over five innings. Cleveland has played better lately, but this still isn’t an offense we expect to run away with this game, especially against a pitcher who has done a good job limiting damage and keeping the ball on the ground.

So there’s a pretty clear path to a low-scoring game here. Williams has the swing-and-miss stuff to make life difficult on an Angels offense that owns the lowest home OPS and slugging percentage in baseball, while Ureña has already shown he can handle this Cleveland lineup. The first four meetings between these teams have finished with nine, five, six and six total runs, including Monday’s 4-2 final. We’re not betting the under just because the previous games stayed low, but it definitely fits with what we see in Tuesday’s matchup.

Under 7.5 is sitting at -123, while the SLS model gives it a 59.7% chance of hitting compared with a 55.2% break-even probability at that price. There isn’t a ton of room with a number this low, so one ugly inning can change things quickly, but we like the setup. Williams is missing bats at a high level, Ureña has been tough to score on, and neither offense is walking into an easy matchup. We’re taking Under 7.5 and looking for another quiet night at the plate.