EDM vs. VAN Pick: Over 6.5

A busy September kept us away from our Daily Picks, but we’re back with a fresh pick and write-up every day starting today.

Edmonton scored five goals Tuesday and still couldn’t get the win. Vancouver took the opener 6–5 in overtime, and we’re going with Over 6.5 at -115 when they meet again tonight. The Oilers have enough offense to make this interesting, and their defending gave Vancouver plenty to work with in the first meeting.

Vancouver needs to stay out of the penalty box. Edmonton converted 30.6% of its power plays last season, while the Canucks killed just 71.5% of their penalties. That matchup gives the Oilers an obvious way to get the scoring going. Vancouver’s best chance of slowing them down is to keep the game at even strength and make them work for their goals. A few unnecessary penalties could make that a much tougher job.

The Oilers have their own problems to clean up after allowing breakaways and odd-man rushes Tuesday. Vancouver can contribute to this total without controlling the game if those openings keep coming. There’s some caution here, though: six goals on 23 shots is a finishing rate we shouldn’t expect the Canucks to repeat. Edmonton is also missing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, which takes a useful piece out of its attack. Better goaltending and fewer mistakes could leave this bet short.

There’s room for a cleaner game than Tuesday’s opener and still enough scoring to reach seven. We like Edmonton to do most of the damage, with Vancouver adding enough at the other end to get this over the number. Our pick is Over 6.5 at -115.