LAK vs. NYI Pick: NYI ML

Monday’s football under came through, while Tuesday’s Minnesota pick went the wrong way in overtime. Tonight, we’re heading to Long Island with the Islanders moneyline at -108 against Los Angeles.

New York has been getting the better of the scoring chances at five-on-five, which is the biggest reason we’re interested here. The Islanders haven’t been overwhelming anyone with shot volume, but they’ve generally created more danger than they’ve given up. Los Angeles has been on the other side of that balance, and taking penalties has only made the Kings’ problems worse.

LA has killed just 64% of opposing power plays. The Islanders’ power play hasn’t been anything special, but this is a matchup where it could contribute. With Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie unavailable, New York would certainly welcome some offense from the extra skater. Those absences leave fewer options up front, making the opportunities Los Angeles gives them particularly valuable.

The Islanders have been much better at handling their own penalties, killing 87.5%. That’s useful support for Semyon Varlamov, who gets the net after stopping 19 of 20 shots against Ottawa. He’s still working his way back into regular action after a long layoff, but that outing was encouraging.

Darcy Kuemper won’t make this easy at the other end. He turned away 30 of 32 shots against Washington in his last start, so the Islanders need to get traffic in front of him and stay involved around the crease. A depleted lineup can’t afford to make his evening comfortable with clean looks at every shot.

We like New York’s chances of finding enough offense here. The Islanders have been doing the better work at even strength, and the Kings’ struggling penalty kill gives them another opening. At nearly even money on home ice, New York gets our backing.

SLS Daily Pick: New York Islanders ML (-108). Playable at -115 or better.