Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick: Under 51.5

San Francisco has been making life difficult for opposing offenses, and Washington hasn’t exactly been helping itself. The Commanders have converted just 22 of 69 third downs this season. Now they face a defense allowing only 4.5 yards per play, with eight offensive touchdowns conceded through five games. That matchup brings us to Under 51.5 at -106 on Monday night.

Jayden Daniels gives Washington more to work with than those season numbers suggest. Some of that third-down trouble came with backup quarterbacks, and his scrambling can turn a well-defended play into a first down. With Nick Bosa out, San Francisco has to be careful about leaving escape lanes. Getting Washington into third-and-long won’t accomplish much if Daniels runs his way out of it.

Still, Daniels is averaging six yards per pass attempt. Washington hasn’t consistently stretched the field through the air, and San Francisco’s defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry. The Commanders may have to put together some lengthy drives to score, giving the 49ers several chances to get them off the field along the way.

Brock Purdy should have an easier time against Washington’s secondary. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes, while the Commanders have already allowed 14. Deebo Samuel’s absence takes away an important target, but there’s still enough offense here for San Francisco to put points up. We’re backing the under because we expect the 49ers to get considerably more stops than Washington—not because we expect Purdy to struggle.

SLS Daily Pick: Washington Commanders–San Francisco 49ers Under 51.5 (-106). Playable at -110 or better, keeping the full 51.5.